Worked analysis · added September 16, 2026
When a 150-reward route loses to a 100-reward route
The following routes and rewards are hypothetical teaching data, not measured Anime Expeditions payouts or drop rates. Imagine farming one currency with the same team and no boosts. Every successful clear pays a fixed amount; failed runs pay zero. In this example, failures consume the same combat time as successes.
| Input or result | Route A · steady | Route B · risky |
|---|---|---|
| Reward per successful clear | 100 | 150 |
| Combat time per attempt | 4 minutes | 3 minutes |
| Loading, results and retry time per attempt | 1 minute | 2 minutes |
| Completed / attempted | 20 / 20 | 12 / 20 |
| Total elapsed time | 20 × (4 + 1) = 100 min | 20 × (3 + 2) = 100 min |
| Total reward, including zeroes | 20 × 100 = 2,000 | 12 × 150 = 1,800 |
| Observed reward per hour | 2,000 ÷ 100 × 60 = 1,200 | 1,800 ÷ 100 × 60 = 1,080 |
Counting only a successful combat run makes B look twice as productive: 150 ÷ 3 × 60 = 3,000/h, versus A's 100 ÷ 4 × 60 = 1,500/h. Counting the full sample reverses the result. A earns 120 more per hour, about 11.1% more than B. At these observed rates, a remaining target of 6,000 would take about 5 hours on A and 5 hours 33 minutes on B; these are projections, not completion promises.
Two ways B can become the better route
Hold A at its modeled 1,200/h baseline. With B's five-minute cycle, its expected rate under a chosen clear probability p is 150 × p × 60 ÷ 5 = 1,800p. B needs p > 2/3 to win. In a new twenty-attempt sample with identical timing, 13 successes produce 1,170/h; 14 produce 1,260/h. Those observations still do not establish the true long-run probability.
Alternatively, hold B's clear probability at an assumed 60%. Its cycle must be shorter than 150 × 0.6 × 60 ÷ 1,200 = 4.5 minutes. With three minutes of combat, overhead must fall below 1.5 minutes. Reducing overhead to one minute gives 150 × 0.6 × 60 ÷ 4 = 1,350/h, beating A. A faster retry flow can matter more than a larger reward preview.
Reproduce the comparison in the notebook
Enter 20 attempts and 100 total minutes for each route. Enter 20 clears and 2,000 total reward for A; 12 clears and 1,800 reward for B. Failed-attempt reward is zero for both. Compare the observed rate to the table; the separate completion-conservative rate will be lower because the notebook also accounts for the small sample.
Takeaway: record from one ready-to-start moment to the next, including every failed attempt. Real failed runs may end early, give partial rewards or consume entry materials: use actual totals instead of this fixed-cycle shortcut. Random rare drops and changing boosts require separate samples; twenty clears cannot prove a rare-drop rate. The analysis was added September 16, 2026 and does not revalidate the July gameplay references below.
Private evidence notebook
Compare the routes you actually ran
Enter totals from a complete sample—including failed runs and partial rewards. The notebook stays in this browser unless you deliberately export it.
Completion-conservative ranking
Your measured route results
Wilson lower completion rate · player-entered reward totals
Add one complete measured sample
A result appears after you enter attempts, total elapsed minutes and total resource earned. No route value is prefilled from another player's account.
Five-minute setup
How to measure a route correctly
- 01
Choose one exact resource
Compare Gems with Gems or one named item with the same item. Do not combine Gold, EXP and rare drops into a made-up universal score.
- 02
Keep the team and settings fixed
Use the same lineup, speed, auto-skip behavior and difficulty while measuring. A team change creates a new route sample.
- 03
Record total elapsed time and rewards
An attempt that fails late still consumes time and may grant a partial payout. Sum the entire sample, then separately enter how much of that reward came from failed attempts.
- 04
Reach at least 10 attempts
Ten is a useful first comparison, not proof. Twenty or more attempts reduce the chance that one lucky streak decides the winner.
Why the ranking is different
Observed speed vs. completion uncertainty
Observed rewards per hour divides the total resource earned by the total elapsed sample time. Loading, reset delays, late failures, partial rewards and variable drops therefore stay inside the result.
Completion-conservative rewards per hour preserves rewards already earned on failed attempts, then scales only the completion-dependent remainder by the lower edge of a 95% Wilson interval for successful clears. A 1-for-1 route receives a severe penalty on clear-dependent rewards, while an 18-for-20 route retains much more.
The Wilson adjustment covers completion uncertainty only. It is not a 95% interval for a random drop rate or reward quantity. Rare items still need raw observations and a much larger sample.
July source snapshot
Five published maps and their equipment goals
The map guide reviewed in July says each new map unlocks after clearing the acts in the previous map. These equipment targets are useful route labels, but the equipment finder remains the better place to compare stats and exclusive passives.
| Story map | Published equipment targets | Measurement note |
|---|---|---|
| School Grounds | Promise Ring · Technique Amplifier · Kunai | Measure Story and Mastery separately; their rewards and clear reliability are not interchangeable. |
| Flower Forest | Hell's Flower · Katana | Measure Story and Mastery separately; their rewards and clear reliability are not interchangeable. |
| Rose Kingdom | Emperor's Attire · Webbed Fruit · Magic Orb | Measure Story and Mastery separately; their rewards and clear reliability are not interchangeable. |
| Fairy King Forest | Boulder · Calamity's Eye · Warrior's Axe | Measure Story and Mastery separately; their rewards and clear reliability are not interchangeable. |
| King's Tomb | Elven Battle Staff · Magic Book | Measure Story and Mastery separately; their rewards and clear reliability are not interchangeable. |
Priority order
Claim guaranteed value before repeating a stage
1. One-time and reset rewards
Redeem current codes, inspect quests, progression milestones, event claims and rotating shops before spending an hour on a repeatable route.
2. The material blocking one chosen upgrade
Use the evolution calculator to identify the exact Sprite, special item or Gold gap. Farming “everything” hides whether the target moved closer.
3. Stable repeatable value
Compare the modes your team can clear now. A lower headline reward can win when the run is faster and does not fail near the end.
4. Optimization resources last
Do not farm equipment rerolls or chase a rare trait on a unit that has not passed the team-fit check.
Evidence ledger
Sources and limits
The five Story map names, unlock order and equipment associations were checked against Ishan Adhikary's Beebom guide, All Anime Expeditions Maps and Rewards, published July 16 and updated July 17. Exact equipment stats come from the separate dated equipment table already documented on this site.
Farming coverage reviewed in July from NerdsChalk recommends Free Run Mastery, while an Anime Expeditions Wiki farming guide tells players to record clear time and success rate in a spreadsheet. We do not hardcode either site's “best” route: this notebook turns that comparison into portable account-specific evidence.
All notebook state and efficiency math remain in your browser. JSON/CSV files are created only when you press export; no Roblox account connection or upload occurs.
Frequently asked questions
What is the best Anime Expeditions farming route?+
The route with the highest reliable reward rate for the exact resource you need. Measure total rewards and total elapsed time across the full sample, including failures; a stable easier route can beat a harder route with a larger headline reward.
How many runs should I record?+
Start with at least 10 attempts per route and prefer 20 or more before making a large time commitment. Rare drops require substantially larger samples than guaranteed currency.
Why is completion-conservative reward per hour lower?+
It applies a lower-bound adjustment to the measured clear rate. Small samples receive a larger penalty, so a route does not rank first just because its only recorded run succeeded.
Do failed runs and partial rewards count?+
Yes. Attempts include every run, total elapsed time includes failing or resetting, and total rewards include partial payouts. Enter the part earned on failed attempts separately so it remains intact while only completion-dependent rewards receive the lower-clear-rate adjustment.
Does the calculator track my Roblox account?+
No. It uses only the numbers you type, saves the notebook locally in this browser and creates JSON or CSV only when you press export.